Chenming Paper (000488): Paper prices stabilize, pulp integration has obvious advantages

Chenming Paper (000488): Paper prices stabilize, pulp integration has obvious advantages

Investment Highlights The company released the first quarter of the 19th year performance forecast: the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers 30-50 million yuan, every 94 years.

25% to 96.

17% (7 in the 南京桑拿论坛 same period last year.

8.3 billion US dollars, mainly due to the sluggish downstream demand caused by the decline in the decline in paper prices.

The company’s sales volume has achieved counter-trend expansion. We expect the company’s sales volume to increase by 15% annually in the first quarter.

The low price of paper may have been reset. It is optimistic that the demand in the second quarter will boost the month-on-month improvement: Poor macroeconomic conditions have affected downstream demand since the beginning of the year, resulting in insufficient dealer confidence and continued to wait and see.The average selling price per ton of / double offset paper / white cardboard is 5603 yuan / 6081 yuan / 4984 yuan, respectively, the earlier 18Q1 was replaced by 24.

06% / 15.

81% / 22.

67%.

Since March, the price 合肥夜网 increase letter of various varieties has landed well, and the price increase has reached 100-200 yuan / ton.

With the peak demand season in Q2, we expect at least a certain amount of price increase in the future. We are optimistic about the company’s low profit in the first quarter, and it is expected to see a significant improvement in the second quarter.

The self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp continues to increase, consolidating cost dividends: The price of coniferous pulp / broad leaf pulp in 19Q1 decreased by 19% / 8% respectively compared with the same period of last year. We expect that pulp prices will still be the downside, which will help the company’s purchase cost balance.

In addition, after the Huanggang Chenming 30 injection project (commissioned in November 18), the Shouguang Meilun 40 injection chemical pulp project has gradually reached full production in the second quarter. We expect the company’s wood pulp self-sufficiency rate will further increase and it can basically achieve self-sufficiencyIt is estimated that a single ton of homemade pulp can save about 1,000 yuan in cost compared to outsourcing, and ensure that the company’s gross profit margin returns to the rising channel.

Capacity expansion scale structure adjustment, foundation stone sales increase: The company’s Shouguang Meilun 51, which was put into production at the end of August 18, introduced a high-end cultural paper project, which is expected to contribute to this year’s performance.

In addition, in order to improve quality and efficiency, the company has adjusted the product structure and increased the output of high-margin varieties such as export paper, high mechanical pulp varieties, natural paper, and high-end specialty paper. The product structure adjustment has been basically completed in the first quarter.Sales will start to increase in the first quarter.

Accelerate the recovery of financial leasing business, which is good for profit: In order to reduce financial risks and focus on the main business, the company has accelerated the recovery of funds from the financial leasing business.

Long-term receivables are included in the closing account for the year 2018.

27 ‰, a decrease of 7.
.

$ 5.8 billion, 40 non-current assets due within one year.

08 million yuan, a decrease of 18.
.

24 ppm, corresponding to the company’s operating cash flow also continued to improve sequentially.

The company announced that it will further expand its cooperation with Great Wall Guorui Securities in supplementing financial leasing business, asset securitization, and comprehensive investment and financing businesses. It is expected that the replacement of financial leasing business will be accelerated, which will help the company to reduce its financial expenses and release performance increases.

Profit forecast and investment grade: It is estimated that from 2019 to 2021, the company’s operating income will be 301.

4.1 billion, 316.

55 ppm and 335.

3 billion, the annual growth rate is 4.

4%, 5.

0% and 5.

9%; net profit attributable to mothers is 25.

4.4 billion, 27.

64 ppm and 29.

8.5 billion, with annual growth rates of 1.

3%, 8.

7% and 8.

0%.

Currently, the corresponding PE for 19-21 years is 11 respectively.
49X, 10.

15 times and 9.
09X, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the price of paper rises more than expected